Analyses & Studies
Coface Risk Review: Country and sector risks
In some ways, 2025 lived up to expectations, marking a sharp acceleration in history amid turmoil and a stabilisation of global growth in line with our initial forecast (+2.8%). Without going back over all the events that punctuated a year that was anything but smooth sailing, this seemingly paradoxical result can be explained by two main factors. The first is that the shock to the global economy was ultimately not as severe as the uncertainties that preceded it, particularly in terms of tariffs. The second is the ability of companies to adapt, particularly those with an international focus, confirming, if confirmation were needed, that globalisation remains a strong dynamic, driven by powerful forces, if not irreducible interdependencies.
What will 2026 look like? It is difficult to say, especially with any degree of precision, given the high level of uncertainty and the often extreme risks involved. First and foremost are geopolitical risks, as recent events have shown, particularly those that have occurred since the beginning of the year, from Latin America to Iran and Greenland. There are also financial risks, given the levels of debt and valuation of most assets in a context of persistently higher interest rates. More generally, there are macroeconomic risks, with the missteps of US economic policy and the ever-present threat of renewed trade hostilities, against a backdrop of intensifying international competition and declining global cooperation. Finally, there are social and political risks, with deep and growing resentment among an ever-larger section of the population in many countries, particularly in Europe. Not to mention, of course, the ever-present or intensifying health and climate risks.
At the time of writing, we are forecasting a very slight slowdown in global growth (+2.6%), (almost) entirely attributable to the Chinese economy (+4.4%), relatively stable inflation against a backdrop of still moderate commodity prices, particularly for energy and food, and the gradual end of the cycle of rate cuts initiated by the major central banks almost two years ago. These forecasts are extremely fragile, dependent as they are on the answers to the many fundamental questions that remain unanswered. While it may not be the moment of truth, the coming year should help to clear up some ambiguities, both economically and in the (geo)political arena.
In this context, and as part of our country and sector risk assessment exercise, we made seven changes to country assessments (including six upgrades) and nine changes to sector assessments (including seven upgrades).
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SOURCE: COFACE
